Technical Analysis is a method of forecasting future prices based on the analysis of past market data, primarily prices and trading volumes. It is grounded in several key postulates that were first formulated by Charles Dow, one of the founders of The Wall Street Journal. These postulates form the foundation of his theory, which remains fundamental to technical analysis today.
Here are the main postulates of Dow:
  1. Price Discounts Everything: This postulate asserts that the current price of an asset reflects all available information, including news, expectations, rumors, and other factors. It is believed that everything that could influence the price is already factored into its current value. Therefore, a technical analyst focuses on price movements rather than trying to assess the impact of various external factors.
  2. The Market Moves in Trends: Dow stated that market prices move in specific directions, known as trends. Trends can be upward (bullish market), downward (bearish market), or sideways (flat). A key objective of technical analysis is to identify the current trend and follow it, as trends are assumed to continue until clear signs of reversal appear.
  3. History Repeats Itself: This postulate is based on the idea that the behavior of market participants remains unchanged over time, leading to the repetition of certain patterns and price movements. These recurring patterns form the basis for technical analysis. Analysts use historical data to identify and predict future price behavior based on similar situations in the past.
In the context of these postulates, technical analysis involves using various tools and methods, such as charts, indicators, and models, to analyze past price movements and determine likely future changes. The primary goal of technical analysis is to identify the current trend, timely recognize its changes, and make trading decisions based on this information.